How We Map the Future of Banking

The Question Your Board Must Answer – With Math

“Under exactly what conditions does our model become uneconomic?“

Not vague trends. Not “pressures exist.”
The precise thresholds where NIM turns negative, deposits flee to stablecoins/CBDCs, regulatory costs eclipse franchise value, or AI outperforms your decisions at 1/40th the cost.

Most Boards can’t answer this rigorously.
That’s not oversight – it’s existential risk.

We give you the instruments to govern it: Viability Physics, Decision Architecture, and Organizational Metabolism – delivered in 150 days.

Why Precision Matters in 2026

Stablecoins processed trillions in 2025. Agentic AI is piloting autonomous liquidity and credit decisions. Basel IV reshapes capital. Climate risk moves to balance sheets.
Intuition and annual planning cycles no longer suffice.
Your Board needs mathematical forcing functions – break points, deadlines, speed diagnostics – to steward long-term value amid acceleration.

The Bancly Method: 150 Days to Governance-Grade Clarity

Phase 1 – Viability Physics (Month 1)

We calculate the four equations defining economic survival.

• Spread Equation – NIM negativity threshold (e.g., at 2.3% policy rates given your cost structure + capital rules).
• Trust Equation – Deposit migration triggers (e.g., 15–25% outflow if CBDC yields 1.5% with instant access).
• License Equation – When compliance/trapped capital exceeds franchise value (e.g., $42M annual cost + $850M capital requiring $95M revenue to break even).
• Intelligence Equation – AI parity timeline (e.g., SME lending crossover Q2 2027 at 1/40th cost-per-decision).

Deliverable: 30-page Viability Assessment – your Board’s “strategic ICAAP.”

Phase 2 – Decision Architecture (Months 2–3)

We map strategic forks with closing windows and irreversibility dates.

Key forks include:

• Integrated vs. unbundled/platform model
• NIM defense vs. volume/share pursuit
• Full-service vs. narrow banking license
• Build vs. cloud/hybrid tech sovereignty
• Human-led vs. AI-augmented talent

Each fork gets: deadlines, path dependencies, P&L/balance sheet impacts across six forces (tech, regs, customers, competition, economics, risk).

Deliverable: 40-page Decision Calendar – governance tool with forcing dates.

Phase 3 – Organizational Metabolism (Months 4–5)

We measure if you can execute fast enough.

Four speeds benchmarked:

• Sense (signal to awareness)
• Decision (commitment latency)
• Execution (capability build time)
• Learning (belief/model update cycle)

Interventions: real-time dashboards, 90-day gates, SWAT teams, failure protocols – integrated into Board/ExCo/Risk rhythms.

Deliverable: 25-page Readiness Framework – speed diagnostics + acceleration plan.

What You Receive

• 95 pages total – focused, not bloated.
• Mathematical precision on survival thresholds and timelines.
• Board presentations designed for governance, not theater.
• Methodology transfer – so foresight becomes repeatable.
• 150 days from kickoff to final Board session (5x faster than legacy consulting equivalents).

Proof from the Field (27 Engagements Since 2012)

• $28B Regional Bank: Identified 2.8% NIM break → exited low-margin segments, automated 40% ops → cost-to-income 68% → 59%, ROE +180bps.
• $120B Mid-Tier: License stress diagnosed → narrow digital license pursued → capital freed, launches 30% faster.
• $380B Large Bank: Intelligence gap flagged → $200M AI commitment, 90-day gates → decision latency 9 months → 6 weeks, new segment entry.

These forced decisions before windows closed – not endless analysis.

ROI anchors: One avoided misstep saves $50M-$500M. 200–500bps ROE uplift common. Fee <5bps annual revenue – cost of being wrong is exponentially higher.

Start with Clarity

Navigate tomorrow’s banking landscape – today.
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